Field Visits / Kobra Pilot 4

Recommended 91-120 DPD high-debt launch map

Prioritize proven recovery pockets, separate discovery markets, and keep spend visible at client-visit economics.

91-120 DPD MXN 20k+ total debt Calculation date: 2026-05-05 All credit products MXN 149 / client visit

Methodology

Portfolio filter, visit economics, and benchmark basis.
  • 91-120 DPD
  • 20k+ total debt
  • calculation_date = '2026-05-05'
  • all credit products
  • MXN 149 per client visit
  • one client = one visit
Benchmark logic. Benchmarks use historical K-group recovered per client in Kobra 91-120 pilots. CDMX and Estado de México packages use selected borough / municipality benchmarks, not broad state averages.

Executive View

Highest-confidence launch anchors and diagnostic tests.
Recommended benchmarked package set
813 clients

MXN 30.1M debt pool; MXN 121.1k potential spend.

Potential recovery
MXN 204.7k

For packages with historical benchmarks.

Potential net after spend
MXN 83.6k

Recovery less MXN 149 per client visit.

Discovery package set
266 clients

MXN 9.9M debt pool; MXN 39.6k spend to learn.

Recommendation

Launch Jalisco core, CDMX selected boroughs, Edomex selected municipalities, and Chihuahua + Juarez first. Add Nuevo Leon metro only as a diagnostic.

Best proven anchor

Jalisco core: 210 clients, MXN 7.6M debt pool, +MXN 25.9k potential net.

Discovery focus

Merida, Leon, Tijuana, and Sinaloa core are for learning; no recovery benchmark yet.

1. Regional Capacity

Market sizing by state; package decisions below are more actionable.
State Clients Debt pool Avg total debt Benchmark / client Potential spend Potential recovery Net after spend
Ciudad de Mexico483MXN 18.0MMXN 37.3kMXN 174MXN 72.0kMXN 84.2k+MXN 12.2k
Estado de Mexico223MXN 8.0MMXN 36.0kMXN 178MXN 33.2kMXN 39.7k+MXN 6.5k
Jalisco216MXN 7.8MMXN 35.9kMXN 272MXN 32.2kMXN 58.9k+MXN 26.7k
Nuevo Leon172MXN 6.5MMXN 38.1kMXN 160MXN 25.6kMXN 27.6k+MXN 2.0k
Sonora125MXN 4.0MMXN 32.3kno benchmarkMXN 18.6kno benchmarkn/a
Baja California114MXN 3.9MMXN 34.4kno benchmarkMXN 17.0kno benchmarkn/a
Sinaloa95MXN 3.3MMXN 34.8kno benchmarkMXN 14.2kno benchmarkn/a
Guanajuato94MXN 3.4MMXN 36.5kno benchmarkMXN 14.0kno benchmarkn/a
Chihuahua80MXN 3.1MMXN 38.5kMXN 338MXN 11.9kMXN 27.0k+MXN 15.1k
Queretaro76MXN 2.8MMXN 36.9kMXN 213MXN 11.3kMXN 16.2k+MXN 4.8k
Puebla76MXN 2.8MMXN 36.6kMXN 136MXN 11.3kMXN 10.3k-MXN 1.0k
Yucatan60MXN 2.4MMXN 40.6kno benchmarkMXN 8.9kno benchmarkn/a
Total regional pool1,814MXN 66.0MMXN 36.4kmixedMXN 270.2kMXN 263.9k*+MXN 66.4k*

*Recovery and net totals include only states with benchmarks; potential spend includes the full displayed regional pool.

2. Proposed Launch Packages

Benchmarked launch candidates separated from discovery-only markets.

With benchmarks — recommended launch economics

Potential net = potential recovery − potential spend.
Region Proposed cities / areas Clients Debt pool Avg total debt Benchmark / client Potential spend Potential recovery Potential net after spend Role
Jalisco coreGuadalajara, Zapopan, Tlaquepaque, Tonala, Tlajomulco210MXN 7.6MMXN 36.1kMXN 272MXN 31.3kMXN 57.2k+MXN 25.9kAnchor
CDMX selected boroughsBenito Juarez, Alvaro Obregon, Iztacalco, Coyoacan, Venustiano Carranza151MXN 5.7MMXN 37.8kMXN 233MXN 22.5kMXN 35.1k+MXN 12.6kTargeted
Edomex selected municipalitiesEcatepec, Naucalpan, Nezahualcoyotl, Tlalnepantla, Atizapan, Cuautitlan Izcalli156MXN 5.5MMXN 35.3kMXN 301MXN 23.2kMXN 47.0k+MXN 23.8kTargeted
Nuevo Leon metroMonterrey, Guadalupe, Apodaca, San Nicolas, Santa Catarina145MXN 5.6MMXN 38.6kMXN 160MXN 21.6kMXN 23.3k+MXN 1.7kDiagnostic
Chihuahua + JuarezChihuahua, Juarez80MXN 3.1MMXN 38.5kMXN 338MXN 11.9kMXN 27.0k+MXN 15.1kAnchor
Queretaro metroSantiago de Queretaro, Corregidora, El Pueblito, San Juan del Rio71MXN 2.6MMXN 37.0kMXN 213MXN 10.6kMXN 15.1k+MXN 4.5kReserve
Benchmarked package totalRecommended launch economics813MXN 30.1MMXN 37.0kweightedMXN 121.1kMXN 204.7k+MXN 83.6k

Without benchmarks — discovery only

No modeled recovery or net; spend is the learning budget.
Region Proposed cities / areas Clients Debt pool Avg total debt Benchmark / client Potential spend Potential recovery Potential net after spend Role
MeridaMerida60MXN 2.4MMXN 40.6kno benchmarkMXN 8.9kdiscoverydiscoveryNew market
LeonLeon59MXN 2.2MMXN 37.1kno benchmarkMXN 8.8kdiscoverydiscoveryNew market
TijuanaTijuana58MXN 2.2MMXN 37.1kno benchmarkMXN 8.6kdiscoverydiscoveryNew market
Sinaloa coreCuliacan, Mazatlan, Los Mochis89MXN 3.1MMXN 34.9kno benchmarkMXN 13.3kdiscoverydiscoveryNew market
Discovery package totalLearning budget only266MXN 9.9MMXN 37.2kno benchmarkMXN 39.6knot modelednot modeled

Recommendation

Focused launch list and explicit deprioritization.

Launch

  1. Jalisco core — main proven anchor.
  2. CDMX selected boroughs — target boroughs, not broad CDMX.
  3. Edomex selected municipalities — target municipalities; track Atizapan separately.
  4. Chihuahua + Juarez — smaller proven package.
  5. Nuevo Leon metro — diagnostic only.

Discovery / holdback

  1. Merida — best high-average-debt discovery cell.
  2. Leon or Tijuana — add one if capacity allows.
  3. Sinaloa core — discovery only; no modeled recovery.
  4. Puebla — do not prioritize; current benchmark is negative after spend.
  5. Queretaro — reserve, behind stronger benchmarked packages.